2026 Local elections: Where might Labour do well?

Posted by Dr Hannah Bunting

2026 Local elections: Where might Labour do well?

By Adam Gray

In May 1990, the Conservatives delivered a master class in spin. They had just emerged from a generally very poor set of local elections. But in the West London boroughs of Brent, Ealing, Hammersmith & Fulham, Wandsworth and Westminster they had gained scores of seats off Labour – both through setting very low Community Charge (Poll Tax) bills in the boroughs they ran, and Labour reaping the consequences of so-called “loony left” boroughs in the councils they ran (and, in the cases of Ealing and Brent, lost). Then Tory Chair Kenneth Baker emerged clutching Friday’s evening Standard replete with images of cheering Wandsworth Conservative councillors, and that set the media narrative.

Labour will almost certainly need to pull something similar out of the hat this Friday. But will they even have the fig-leafs Kenneth Baker built his media strategy on?  Let’s take a look at the story no-one else is covering: places where Labour might do well.

We have scoured the country looking for those Starmer Strongholds; those Keir Kingdoms. And, to be honest, this has been harder than Anneka Rice successfully completing an episode of Treasure Hunt. I know, I know: Who? What? Look them up, if you’re so inclined.

To start off, there are those councils, some of which we’ve been looking at in our preview of the battle in the Mets, that have been so safe up to now that Labour cannot lose them – no matter how big a nuclear bomb explodes over party HQ.

These are all councils that elect by thirds, where Labour won such big majorities in the seats that came up in 2023 and 2024 that their majority can’t be erased in one go: they’ll be vulnerable next year but not this. These include:

If we start with London, nowadays Labour’s strongest region, the narrative has all been about sweeping Green gains. That narrative probably will come true but London is vast and does not vote as one.

There are boroughs where the Green threat is diminished. Most of those are outer London boroughs where the battle is principally Conservative (or Residents Association) versus Reform. But it includes the three “West Central” boroughs: Hammersmith & Fulham, Kensington & Chelsea and Westminster.

These three cover the political spectrum: a nowadays strongly Labour Hammersmith & Fulham; the Tories’ best borough Kensington & Chelsea, and that first-ever Labour win from 2022 in London – Westminster, which some of the projections have Labour retaining, and others have them losing it. Likewise, some have Labour holding Wandsworth, some losing it.

If Labour holds either – which is unlikely but possible – they will be massive holds for the party. And the wins will be amplified by the media being based here, and the two declaring relatively quickly.

Hammersmith & Fulham has a recent history as a marginal Labour-Conservative borough – also usually counted as the third most expensive London borough after Kensington & Chelsea and Westminster.  On any economic yardstick it should be somewhere the Tories can win.  They’ll almost certainly regain some seats but the swing they need to reach a majority of just one is huge: it’s larger than they need to gain Brent!

Elsewhere in London, Labour has a decent shot at holding onto Barnet (though last week’s Golders Green stabbings may have a late impact). The ward boundaries, and rapidly evolving demographics, help Labour. Ealing is somewhat like Hammersmith & Fulham in being a broadly quite affluent, commuter dormitory that used to switch regularly between the Tories and Labour.  Labour has a huge majority in Ealing and the Lib Dems are trying hard to pick off the remaining Tory seats. But Labour may not do so well in overwhelmingly Hindu and Sikh Southall – for a change, it’s usually their foundation. Nonetheless, it’s not obvious who can put together a path to a majority in Ealing other than Labour.

Labour should also be able to hang onto at least three or four of Brent, Greenwich, Haringey, Hounslow, Newham, Redbridge, Southwark and Waltham Forest.

Beyond London things become paradoxically easier and harder for Labour. Harder because because there aren’t so many Labour strongholds, and easier because many of the councils up elect by thirds or halves so, even if Labour gets whacked they might hold enough of the seats not up this year to keep power, one way or the other.

In the South Labour’s most promising defences are (probably in order): Worthing, Ipswich, Adur, Southampton, Crawley, Exeter, Plymouth, and Milton Keynes.

If you look at any general election MRP poll the models tend to show Labour holding unexpected 2024 gains – places like Rushcliffe in Nottinghamshire, Macclesfield, York Outer and Hitchin – while getting splatted in traditional Midlands and northern fiefs. None of these Labour-inclined places have elections this year, but they have demographic similarities to Milton Keynes, Colchester, Basingstoke, the Altrincham end of Trafford, and the Southport end of Sefton. These are up this year.

Looking at the Mets, where Labour is likely to take its biggest beating, there are still places they might fare strongly. Coventry, for example, both because there likely aren’t enough Reform-leaning wards and due to local MP Zarah Sultana, joint leader of Your Party, seemingly not doing much to organise council candidates. The Greens may do well in their absence, but Labour may keep control. Or at least, it is perhaps their best shot at hanging on of the Mets with all-out elections.

Some recent forecasts have Labour just clinging on in Birmingham – that would be a stunning result given their record and the impact pro-Gaza Independents had in the city at the general election. It doesn’t declare until late Friday, so it would have to be Saturday’s headline for some spin, which might be too late.

In Merseyside, Labour are likely to hold Knowsley and probably Sefton (though that one’s looking tight). Andy Burnham may be keeping an eye on Sefton as the rumours are the MP for the borough’s Bootle constituency may stand down so he, Burnham, can return to Westminster.

In Greater Manchester Labour cannot lose Wigan or Manchester and almost certainly not Rochdale or Trafford or Bury. So there’s a little cluster of Labour red to the west of the Pennines. And, beyond that, they have too large a majority to lose Chorley and just hang onto Gateshead.

Alas, there are no councils up for election this year that are trending so rapidly towards Labour that they might spring an out-of-nowhere gain – the traffic is all moving in the other direction, even if the end destination: Greens or Reform, are markedly different.

Labour really, really needs to hold at least one of Barnet, Wandsworth or Westminster to have any chance of spinning a less than catastrophic night.