The Elections Centre Constituency Spotlights 2024: Plymouth Moor View

Posted by Dr Hannah Bunting

This seat is one of two in the city of Plymouth, represented by the Conservative’s Johnny Mercer since his win in 2015. His campaigning style involved sitting in local cafes and appealing to the average Plymothian, but he’s often made the headlines. This includes saying that the first time he ever voted was for himself, and for likening a 25 year old MP to the TV programme ‘The Inbetweeners’. A former member of the Armed Forces, he has served as Veterans Minister since 2022.

The notional 2019 results which account for the boundary changes show he’s defending a comfortable Tory majority of 27.5%. Yet recent polling from Sky News and YouGov suggest it’s likely to be a Labour gain on 4^th July. Which begs the question: why might this happen? Putting aside the national picture, there’s plenty of local explanations for why Mercer’s seat is vulnerable.

Plymouth has previously both had two Labour MPs, and two Conservative MPs, but has been served by one of each party since 2017. Control of the local council similarly oscillates between these two main parties. Since its creation, the longest stint of control was a five-year Conservative councillor majority between 2007 and 2012. It’s currently controlled by Labour.

It’s also an area where UKIP did very well immediately before the 2016 Brexit referendum, both in local and national elections. At the 2015 general election, the UKIP candidate achieved 21.5% of the vote. Plymouth Moor View voted 65% Leave according to Hanretty’s estimates of the referendum results. In the 2024 local elections, the Reform UK party stood 13 candidates in Plymouth (nearly 4% of all their candidates at that election) but failed to win a councillor.

The line chart shows party vote share in local elections for the constituency over 20 years. It highlights the rise of UKIP who achieved equal vote share to Labour, and more than the Conservatives, in 2014. Yet perhaps more importantly for Mercer, it also illustrates the recent decline in the Tory vote. Since 2019, the Conservatives vote share has halved to just 26.3% in 2024, whereas Labour’s has risen to 47%.

The boundary changes for this seat mean the constituency has been enlarged to encompass some of the neighbouring Sutton & Devonport, where Labour MP Luke Pollard defends a 10.4% majority. In the 2024 local elections, the Conservatives achieved an even lower proportion of the vote in Pollard’s seat, just 22.3%. Moving some of those voters to Moor View diminishes Mercer’s chances further.

In a city with a strong military history, Mercer will be up against a fellow veteran in Labour’s Fred Thomas who’ll need a 13.8 point swing to win the seat. The fact that Reform stands Shaun Hooper, who is likely take some of the Conservative votes, makes that swing more achievable. Sarah Martin stands for the Liberal Democrats, and Georgia Nelson for the Greens. If Labour win, and Pollard retains Sutton & Devonport, it will be the first time since 2010 that Plymouth has two Labour MPs.

We expect to know the results for Plymouth Moor View sometime between 4.30am and 6am on Friday 5th July. It might not quite be a Portillo moment, but if Labour do take this constituency it will spell trouble for a swathe of Conservatives defending seats across the South West.

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