The Elections Centre Constituency Spotlights 2024: Altrincham & Sale West

Posted by Dr Hannah Bunting

20 June 2024

In the run up to the 2024 general election, The Elections Centre is using its unique dataset of local election results to provide insights into some key constituencies. In this edition, we consider Altrincham and Sale West.

This constituency is one of the 76 that have had no changes to their boundaries. However it will certainly be getting a new MP for the first time because its previous representative, Chair of the Conservatives’ 1922 Committee Sir Graham Brady, is standing down. He has held the seat since its creation in 1997. It’s one of the leafier parts of Greater Manchester, around 30 minutes south of the city centre, and considered a ‘true blue’ area in the north west of England.

In 2019, the Conservatives won almost half of all votes here and an 11.2% majority. With Labour needing a 12.7 point swing for a parliamentary majority, it’s well within the benchmarks they’re looking to hit for a decisive victory at this election. Yet this affluent area has never been served by a Labour MP. Their Mancunian Deputy Leader Angela Rayner has been out campaigning in Altrincham, but the party might need to rely on tactical voting to win this seat on 4th July.

 

 

A look at local election voting in Altrincham & Sale West shows a diverse pattern of party support. There are six wards in the constituency, all bar one are represented by three members of the same party: the Conservatives, Labour, Liberal Democrats and Greens each have two wards where all councillors share a party. There are clear pockets of party support in the communities across the seat.

 

This trend of diversity is visible when graphing local vote shares over time. It also shows a story of trajectory. Prior to 2019, the Conservatives’ worst result was 42% in 1994. However in the most recent election of 2024, 30 years later, they recorded their lowest share at under a third of all votes. Labour’s best performance was 34% in 1990 and results show them ten points below that in 2024.

The reduction of vote share for both main parties is due to strong performances from the Green Party, who won more than a fifth of votes in 2024, and a modest recovery of the Liberal Democrats who were on 18%. Reform and its predecessor UKIP have never done well here, polling under 5% of all votes.

This tells us that Altrincham & Sale West is likely to be one of the areas where the Greens are taking votes from the Conservatives. Perhaps a counterintuitive switch of allegiances due to their differing places on the ideological spectrum, this seat was Remain voting at 61.6% according to Hanretty’s estimates, has high incomes and low rates of benefit claimants, and is surrounded by nature and wildlife. For those unhappy with the Tory party, the Greens are often chosen as the best alternative option.

Though for Labour to win this seat at the general election, those local Green voters might have to tactically cast a ballot for them. Liberal Democrat backers may have to do the same. Even with their declining support, the Conservatives were eight points ahead of Labour in the most recent local votes. Two of the councillor seat races were very close, won by just 6 and 30 votes in Labour’s favour. If that were to be repeated, the Conservatives might just hold on.

One other reason that Labour may think they could gain this seat is the history of council control here. The wards in this constituency are part of Trafford Council. It went Labour for the first time in 1996 just before their landslide general election victory. The Conservatives took back control in 2004, but it’s now been under Labour again since 2019. The number of parties which challenge them is the key difference between these two periods and we’re yet to know the impact it will have.

 

We might know this result sometime between 4am and 6am on the 5th July. It’s worth looking out for whether the votes solidified around one of the six candidates on the ballot, or whether it was spread out amongst them all.

 

Do you have a question that can be answered with local elections data? Get in touch at elections@exeter.ac.uk

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